British Pound Technical Forecast: Neutral
It was a brutal week for the British Pound against both the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Sterling also gave up value to the Euro as EUR/GBP bounced from a big zone of support. GBP/AUD was somewhat of an exception, however, as GBP rallied against an Australian Dollar that got slammed in the aftermath of the FOMC rate decision.
A backdrop of that nature can be difficult to imagine anything other than more of the same. But, as discussed in the Analyst Pick published earlier on Friday, GBP/USD may have some reversal potential in it yet, largely taken from the area at which support played-in during Friday trade. That spot is the same 1.3800 level that was in play around early-May, just on the heels of a failed breakout at the 1.4000 psychological level. While EUR/USD and AUD/USD are plunging down to fresh lows, GBP/USD remains within the context of prior support and this, deductively, can keep GBP/USD as one of the more interesting areas for those looking to fade this recent run of USD strength.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart
For that reversal scenario to remain active, a hold of the current support zone will be key, and I have this plotted from 1.3800-1.3809. A hold here through the Monday open can keep the door open for reversal hypothesis.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Neutral
GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart
GBP/JPY Sinks Below Support
There was also a rate decision out of the Bank of Japan to considerably less fanfare. But, similar to the above scenario in GBP/USD, the pair was holding on to an extended up-trend ahead of this week’s events and prices pulled back with aggression.
The big question here is whether GBP/JPY is starting a fresh down-trend as this was the first ‘lower-low’ posted on the Daily chart in approximately two months. But, if that is to happen, we’d still be in the very early stages and given the length and duration of the prior up-trend, it seems presumptuous to call for a complete trend change after just a couple of days of price action.
The forecast will be set to neutral here for next week, but if the pair pushes down for a test of the 150.00 psychological level, there’ll be more evidence in the fresh bearish trend camp, and that can open the door for a bearish forecast in the weeks ahead.
GBP/JPY Technical Forecast: Neutral
GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart
EUR/GBP Bounce from Fibonacci Support
The move was a bit more quiet against the Euro last week, as both currencies were getting slammed against both the USD and the Yen. But, given the lack of theatrics around that move there may be some workable scope, as I had shared in the Thursday article on the Euro. In that piece, I looked at EUR/GBP as a possible mechanism for working with a Euro bounce, if one was to show. Well, that bounce did not show against USD or JPY, but it did against GBP as the pair rose by as much as 59.6 pips on Friday.
Keeping this as interesting for continued GBP-weakness is the build of a falling wedge formation, which will often be approached with the aim of bullish reversals. Price action still remains within this building formation so we’d still need to see some bullish price action to make this a more pronounced case of reversal potential, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for next week.
The forecast for EUR/GBP will be set to neutral for the week ahead.
EUR/GBP Technical Forecast: Neutral
EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart
GBP/AUD Tags Big Resistance
One pair that may retain some attraction for GBP bulls for next week is GBP/AUD. While the British Pound was down against many major currencies, so was the Australian Dollar. In the cross pair, GBP/AUD pushed up to a fresh eight month high, finding resistance at the familiar psychological level of 1.8500. This same level provided for a strong inflection when it last came into play in October of last year, with GBP/AUD dropping by more than 1,000 pips in the months that followed.
At this point, given the build of higher-lows so far in 2021 and, more recently, over the past few months, there may be some bullish breaking potential in here and that 1.8500 level may come under further fire from bulls in the days and weeks ahead.
The forecast will be set to bullish here for the week ahead.
GBP/AUD Technical Forecast: Bullish
GBP/AUD Daily Price Chart
— Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX